Three local governments here borrow: the Arkadelphia School District, Clark County, and the City of Arkadelphia. What if each had saved first and paid cash? This page replays their real bonds against the real yearly returns of Treasury bills, bonds, and stocks. Updated 2026-09-26.
Play it — pick a start year and a stretch of market history
Showing: saving starts in 2000; markets follow what really happened. Each plan buys the same things on the same dates.
Arkadelphia School District — $73.4 million borrowed
What was borrowed for
2015
New middle and elementary school work (2015 bonds)
$13,643,365
2015
Paying off older school bonds, and costs of sale (rest of the 2015 bonds)
$7,551,635
2022
New elementary school (2022 bonds)
$15,015,000
2026
New high school (2026 bonds)
$37,170,000
Borrowwhat actually happened
$127 million taxpayers pay · $54.1 million of it interest
$13.4 million paid through 2026. $114 million still due, the last in 2056.
Save first, in Treasury billsallowed today
$63.5 million taxpayers pay · $2.4 million a year for 27 years
Every project paid in cash on the same date. Nothing owed. $63.9 million less than borrowing.
Save first, in 60% stocks and 40% bondsnot allowed for county money
$32.3 million taxpayers pay · $1.2 million a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 28 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $30.2 million.
Save first, in stocksnot allowed for county money
$26.6 million taxpayers pay · $984,356 a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 31 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $60.9 million.
Invest and borrow against itnot allowed for county money
$63.5 million taxpayers pay · $2.4 million a year into stocks
Borrow just as it really did, and pay the bonds from the fund. By 2026 the fund holds about $318 million while $114 million of bond payments are still due — about $204 million ahead. For comparison, the same money in stocks paying cash for each project would hold about $201 million.
$9.7 million taxpayers pay · $1.2 million of it interest
$3.2 million paid through 2026. $6.5 million still due, the last in 2036.
Save first, in Treasury billsallowed today
$7.5 million taxpayers pay · $342,659 a year for 22 years
Every project paid in cash on the same date. Nothing owed. $2.2 million less than borrowing.
Save first, in 60% stocks and 40% bondsnot allowed for county money
$3.2 million taxpayers pay · $144,634 a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 33 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $5.3 million.
Save first, in stocksnot allowed for county money
$2.6 million taxpayers pay · $118,104 a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 27 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $7.8 million.
Invest and borrow against itnot allowed for county money
$7.5 million taxpayers pay · $342,659 a year into stocks
Borrow just as it really did, and pay the bonds from the fund. By 2026 the fund holds about $43.4 million while $6.5 million of bond payments are still due — about $36.9 million ahead. For comparison, the same money in stocks paying cash for each project would hold about $31.4 million.
$5.2 million taxpayers pay · $1.6 million of it interest
$1.4 million paid through 2026. $3.7 million still due, the last in 2044.
Save first, in Treasury billsallowed today
$3.2 million taxpayers pay · $158,331 a year for 20 years
Every project paid in cash on the same date. Nothing owed. $2.0 million less than borrowing.
Save first, in 60% stocks and 40% bondsnot allowed for county money
$1.8 million taxpayers pay · $87,965 a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 13 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $1.8 million.
Save first, in stocksnot allowed for county money
$1.6 million taxpayers pay · $78,153 a year
Pick this amount ahead of time and it came up short in 20 of 73 stretches of market history since 1928 — once by $3.3 million.
Invest and borrow against itnot allowed for county money
$3.2 million taxpayers pay · $158,331 a year into stocks
Borrow just as it really did, and pay the bonds from the fund. By 2026 the fund holds about $19.1 million while $3.7 million of bond payments are still due — about $15.4 million ahead. For comparison, the same money in stocks paying cash for each project would hold about $10.9 million.
The school district’s debt tax is 22.65 mills. It brings in about $6.34 million a year. Payments in 2027 are about $3.8 million.
Under the current plan the debt tax never retires: the high-school payment doubles, to about $3.8 million a year, in 2048 — the same year the older bonds are paid off.
The high-school bonds: $37.17 million borrowed, $74.54 million paid back by 2056. The interest (about $37.4 million) is more than the building.
What doubled the cost was the 30-year term, not borrowing itself: the same bonds at the same rate, paid with the full debt tax, would be done in about 7 years with about $6.8 million of interest.
Once debt-free, the same 22.65 mills could pay cash for a $37 million school about every 5½ years.
Clark County’s road bonds were sold in 2021 at 1.125–2.00%. At rates that low, borrowing costs little — saving first would have saved about $2 million.
“Invest it and borrow against it” — why counties can’t, and who can
Wealthy people borrow against their stocks so they never have to sell them and pay capital-gains tax. Governments pay no income tax, so that part doesn’t apply. What’s left is a bet: that investments earn more than the loan costs. In the table above, most of the gain comes from investing early — not from the borrowing.
Federal law won’t let tax-exempt bond money be invested at a higher return than the bond pays; extra earnings go to the U.S. Treasury (26 U.S.C. §148).
The warning: in 1994, Orange County, California used borrowed money to stretch a $7.6 billion investment pool to more than $20 billion. It lost about $1.7 billion and filed for bankruptcy on December 6, 1994 (SEC order).
Saving first means paying for years before anything gets built. Borrowing gets the building now.
People who move here later use a building they never saved for. Spreading the cost over the years people use it is the fair argument for bonds.
A growing pot of money has to survive many elections without being spent on something else.
Money left in residents’ pockets while a county borrows isn’t worth nothing to them.
All figures are in dollars of their own year, not adjusted for inflation. Only the bonds listed above are counted.
Market returns: Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern — Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills (histretSP.xls), retrieved 2026-09-26 — data page. Calendar-year returns. stock = S&P 500 including dividends; tbill = 3-month U.S. Treasury bill; tbond = 10-year U.S. Treasury bond. Returns run through 2025; 2026 is counted with no market growth. This page computes and cites; it doesn’t recommend a plan. Spot an error? Report it.